FIN1002, Financial Statistics


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FIN1002 Financial Statistics

2016

Assignment

Objectives of this assignment

 

To provide students with the opportunity to:

 

  • combine statistical analysis and report writing skills to prepare a concise, non-technical business report,

 

  • draw a random sample to complete statistical analysis,

 

  • develop and enhance computing skills, specifically the use of the built-in functions in MS Excel and MS Word,

 

  • apply statistical techniques to a data set, and

 

  • reinforce taught concepts including descriptive statistics, sampling and estimation, hypothesis testing, correlation and regression.

Background

There are seven variables in this data set and 1000 cases, including an ID number for each cases.  Do not produce statistical analysis for ID.   Download this data from the Blackboard.

In the assignment we use data about Banking supplied by Ordinary People’s Bank.

  • ID: case number
  • TYPE: Type of account (C:Cheque, S:Savings and V:Visa)
  • SEX: Gender (F:Females and M:Males)
  • AGE: Age of the account holder in years
  • BALANCE: Account balance
  • OPEN: Account open (1:Open and 0:Not Open)
  • TRANSACTIONS: Total transaction in whole dollars

Tasks

Most of your statistical calculations should be carried out using Excel only and you will use Microsoft Word and Excel to complete this assignment.

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1.         Select a Random Sample

 

Select a random sample of size 50 from the given 1000 cases.  You will use this sample data to complete tasks 2 to 6. Since repeat cases may occur when you draw random numbers and each case can be included only once in your sample, some of you may end up with a sample size less than 50. In such a situation do not draw another sample to acquire 50 values.  You will continue to work on your sample only, even though your sample is smaller than 50.

 

Give your set of random numbers and your sample data in the appendix.

 

 

 

  1. Descriptive Statistics

 

Use appropriate data summary methods to describe the bank data in your sample using the six variables.  Use an appropriate graphical and/or summary statistical technique, chosen according to the type of variable These techniques will be chosen from:

Tabular Techniques:                   Frequency tables and Grouped frequency tables.

Graphical Techniques:               Pie chart, Bar graph, Histogram, Frequency Polygon.

Summary Statistics:                  Mode, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation, Range, Coefficient of Variation and Interquartile Range.

 

NB: You will need to choose the most appropriate technique(s) for each variable being analysed. Less appropriate/inappropriate techniques will receive fewer/no marks.  Do not draw Ogive curve, Stem plot or a box plot in this assignment.

 

There are six variables all together to be analysed.

For a nominal or an ordinal variable draw a graph and present a frequency table in percentages.

For a ratio or an interval variable draw a graph and a summary statistics table.

Try to use variation in drawing graphs eg pie chart/ bar chart or histogram/polygon as much as possible.  Do not draw two different graphs for the same variable.

 

 

  1. 3. Confidence intervals
    Estimate the following quantities, using 95% confidence intervals. Explain the meaning of your confidence intervals.
  • The average age of account holders for the open accounts only.
  • The average total transaction dollars for all accounts.

Compare these intervals with their respective true means calculated from the full dataset in the main section of the report.

The computations and output should be placed in an appendix.

 

 

  1. Hypothesis Testing

 

  • It is often felt that female account holders have different account balances on average than male account holders. For this hypothesis only consider OPEN accounts. Investigate this contention by carrying out an appropriate hypothesis test.

 

(b)        It is often felt that the average transaction dollars differ for Visa and non-visa accounts.  Use ACCOUNT TYPE for this test.

 

Only report a non-technical explanation of your methodology and your findings in the main section of the report. The computations and output should be placed in an appendix.

 

 

 

  1. Correlation and Regression

 

In this section you will investigate the relationship between the transaction dollars and age of the account holders for OPEN accounts only.

Using these two variables develop a regression model to predict average transaction dollar from their age. Make sure that you undertake a full regression analysis, with appropriate discussion and include:

  • a scattergram and a brief discussion
  • an estimate of the linear regression model
  • the coefficients of correlation and determination
  • a test of the hypothesis that there is no linear relationship between transaction dollars and the age of an account holder.

.           The computations and output should be placed in an appendix.

 

 

 

  1. Conclusion

This assignment counts 10% towards the final score.

 

Presentation                                                       4

Executive Summary                                           4

Introduction                                                       2

Descriptive statistics                                         12

Confidence intervals                                          6

Hypothesis Tests                                              6

Correlation and Regression                                8

Conclusion and Limitations                                4

Appendix with EXCEL outputs                           4        

50

 

Include only relevant Excel output in the report, the rest should be placed in the appendices.

MARKS AND SUBMISSION INSTRUCTIONS:

 

(i)         This assignment contributes 15% to the final assessment students are expected to submit genuine attempts at the assignment, before a pass grade or above can be awarded for the subject.

 

            due assignment Thursday May 26th by 10 pm(AEST).

 

(ii)       This assignment must have the correct cover page (available on the FIN10002 web page) with your ID, family name and given name

 

(iii)        Submit your completed assignment electronically via the given portal.

 

(iv)       The penalty for late submission of assignments is 20% of awardable marks per day overdue.

 

(v)        Marks will be awarded for presentation. Assignments must be word processed and include page numbers. Students are to use MS-Excel to perform the data analysis. All relevant Excel output, referred to but not included in the report itself, is to be placed in an appendix.

 

(vi)        Students must work independently on this assignment and submit only their own work.

 

(vii)       Assignment maximum lengths:

 

5 single-sided A4 pages, plus cover sheet, Executive Summary and appendices.  Executive Summary and appendices are not included in the page count.

 

  • Each student must keep a copy of their assignments for their own records.

 

 

Detailed instructions will be provided in your lectures about completing this assignment.  Some Excel work will be demonstrated in some lectures to help you complete your calculations and project writing.

 

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PRESENTATION OF A BUSINESS REPORT

The report should be presented in the form of a business report to a senior manager who cannot be assumed to have any particular knowledge of statistical methods.

 

Make your report informative but concise and use a non-technical style. Do not just quote statistics or analysis results but explain what they mean. In general, do not include in the report formulae, calculations, definitions of statistical terms or discussions on how graphs are constructed. Where appropriate these may be included in the appendices.

 

It is important that the values which have been calculated are correctly analysed, discussed and interpreted, and that a written description of the main features of the tables and graphs that have been constructed is included. The emphasis in this assignment is on interpretation and analysis, not just the computation of statistics and construction of graphs. It will be assumed that all computations have been correctly performed and that graphs have been properly constructed. Nevertheless, marks will be deducted if these are inaccurate or incorrect.

 

 

 

 

PRESENTATION

 

Presentation is an important feature of a business report. The guide to presentation that follows gives a general outline to report writing.

 

Executive Summary

  • Report only the highlights of the findings
  • Entice an Executive to read on
  • Essentially a lively summary of the main conclusions
  • No longer than one page, is not counted in the page count and must be on a separate page from the rest of the report.

Introduction

  • State the purpose of the Report, ie what you will discuss in the report
  • Outline the contents of the Report
  • Provide a brief description of the methodology
  • Describe the source of the data and state its location in the report.

 

Analysis

  • Contains a thorough yet non-technical description of all the findings (graphs and tables will be included only where they help this discussion).
  • Details the results that were highlighted in the Executive Summary
  • DO NOT INCLUDE ANY CALCULATIONS HERE but include appropriate graphs and tables which are needed to support your discussions

 

Conclusion

  • Report the findings and results of your work
  • Essentially an expansion of the EXECUTIVE SUMMARY written from the point of view that the Executive Summary has not been read.
  • End with a discussion of the limitations of your analysis.

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Appendices

  • MUST be numbered and referred to in the main body of the report
  • A place for the raw data, charts and tables that are not essential for, but support, the ANALYSIS section.
  • Computer outputs
  • Any other relevant calculations

 

BUT keep the appendices to a moderate size. Marks are only given for the report itself.  Your EXCEL work confirmation will be checked in the Appendices.

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